IMCCE Meteor Shower Ephemerides Server

2005 LEONID FORECASTINGS

Introduction:

After the great occurence of Leonids meteor storms from 1998 up to 2002, the expected Leonids activity is low. For 2005, M. Maslov was the first at pointing out that there may be a special encounter. We investigate here this possibility.

Results

The general situation is illustrated below.
We can see that the Earth is surounded by trails, but none really interesects its orbit. The closest one is the trail ejected in 1167, but only a portion of it will collide with the Earth. The figure below provides more details about that.
From this picture, we cannot expect a high ZHR value (<50). If any maximum caused by this trail is found, it should occur around 21/11/2005 at 1:10 UT.
From the observations of the annual stream, the International Meteor Organization expects a maximum at 14h30m UT on November 17.

See also

Work done by Mikhail Maslov.
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